DR Congo's Divisive Power Struggle

It was a shock, on the morning of 10 January 2019, to learn that Felix Tshiekedi would succeed Joseph Kabila as president of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The announcement was not the issue, after weeks of uncertainty and delays. The real surprise was that the declared winner was neither Kabila’s choice nor the pre-election favourite of the opposition.

Felix Tshiekedi

FELIX Tshiekedi leads the Union for Democracy and Social Progress and won 47 percent of the vote. He now becomes responsible for leading a country which has been in Kabila's chokehold since 2001. The people of DRC could do without any more of the political and economic instability which has plagued the country for years. Yet the fallout from this election is far from over.

As expected, Martin Fayulu, the runner-up and pre-election favourite has challenged the result in court.

There were reports that Tshiekedi did a backroom deal with Kabila, delaying the declaration of the winner. Reports also said riot police had appeared on Kinshasa streets, in anticipation of demonstrations.

We will be watching for signs of the DRC slipping into violence again, adding to existing global uncertainties. Entering 2019, we have Brexit, the US-China trade war, a US government shutdown and market jitters which have shaken even the mighty Apple.

Investors will need to be vigilant. World events will challenge not only tech-based industries but also traditional ones, like mining. We will be monitoring which route Tshiekedi is likely to take in cooperating with mining companies. DRC is a key contributor to global production – it's Africa’s largest copper producer for one.

Our analysts also draw on history and our expertise to find pointers for the future. We have already seen other sub-Saharan inaugurations of leaders advancing a belief that African nations must at last fully own their natural resources.

Take-back time

On gaining power in November 2015, Tanzania’s John Magufuli confronted multinational mining companies. He accused them of stealing his country’s assets. He added action to words by charging Acacia Mining with under-reporting mineral exports. The government demanded fines and backdated taxes of $190 billion.

Zambian President Edgar Lungu, who gained power in January 2015, approved state-owned ZCCM-IH's legal action against Vedanta and FQM. In both cases, the governments sought to recoup money they said the companies had short-changed them.

We must first see whether Tshiekedi actually makes it to the Palais de la Nation, Kinshasa’s Presidential Palace. If he does, we will consider whether his assertion of authority is going to be measured and thought through.